Etiquetas
The post provides a detailed analysis of the post-election scenario, highlighting the surprising performance of Sergio Massa and the challenges faced by both Massa and Milei in winning over the JxC party. It raises thought-provoking questions about the lack of public indignation towards corruption and its impact on the election results. The post also discusses the economic implications of the election and the uncertainties surrounding Massa’s financial plan. Overall, the content is informative and covers various aspects of the topic.
The general post-election scenario has left a series of notable impressions that deserve analysis.
The election results have led to a runoff between Sergio Massa and Milei, which was more or less in line with what the polls had anticipated. However, what has drawn the most attention is Massa’s surprising performance, securing 36.7% of the national vote, exceeding expectations.
Both candidates, Massa and Milei, now face the challenge of winning over the votes of the Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) party, a diverse and struggling coalition that includes radicals and members of the PRO. The current state of this almost former coalition is very complicated due to ideological differences within JxC.
Radicals seem more inclined to support Massa, while PRO members tend to favor Milei. The diversity within JxC complicates the electoral math heading into the November 19th runoff.
Massa’s challenge will be to attract new voters, especially those dissatisfied with the current national administration, despite a weakened economy and a poverty rate hovering around 40%.
It’s surprising not to be able to find a reasonable explanation for the following question:
How is it possible that corruption doesn’t elicit the indignation it deserves at the polls?
This is a question that society and the political class must urgently address, as systemic corruption and citizen apathy are an explosive combination that undermines democracy itself.
Corruption cases in the Province of Buenos Aires have reached levels that defy understanding. It’s hard not to look with astonishment and concern at the apathy of voters in the face of these blatant scandals that, in other circumstances, would have triggered a political tsunami. But instead of punishing those responsible, citizens have opted for a sort of collective indifference that begs for an explanation.
Or does this view overlook the fact that people are being dulled by hunger and lack of education and prefer current slavery to eat without working and live in squalor and filth?
Has the public relegated the fight against corruption to a lower priority on their list?
Or has systemic corruption at the highest levels of political power become so distant from everyday life that it doesn’t even warrant consideration at the time of voting?
Or have we reached the point where the misappropriation of public funds has become so normalized that it doesn’t even cause a hint of anger in the electorate?
Regardless of the cause, what is undeniable is that corruption scandals had no negative impact on the results of the recent national elections. Those responsible for these reprehensible acts not only escaped punishment but were rewarded with votes.
Let’s look at the facts:
An individual with 48 debit cards is caught withdrawing large sums of cash for personal and K-party benefits.
The chief of staff of Governor Kicillof indulges in an economic and sexual feast in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea.
The mayor of Quilmes gets entangled in a murky web of cooperatives run by officials affiliated with her administration, paradoxically receiving public funds from her municipality.
And what was the electorate’s response?
Kicillof won the Province with an almost 20-point advantage.
Insaurralde’s protégé received nearly 50% of the votes in Lomas de Zamora, where the yachter remains the mayor on leave. Additionally, Mayra Mendoza was reelected in Quilmes with over 50% of the votes.
The case of Chocolate Rigau, the man with the debit cards at Banco Provincia, is under judicial investigation, with solid indications of links to leaders close to Sergio Massa, who emerged as the most-voted presidential candidate despite it all. The information found on his phone could uncover a corruption network that goes beyond the individual implicated.
But instead of being repudiated at the polls, the responsible parties for these scandals have gone unpunished and, in some cases, strengthened. Martin Insaurralde, questioned for money laundering, would have been comfortably elected as a councilor if he had not withdrawn his candidacy.
As for Milei, he will need to appeal to the average voter by moderating some of his more controversial ideas and focusing on his opposition to Kirchnerism as a central part of his political platform.
Massa managed to win in 13 of the 24 Argentine provinces, while Milei, who had been the most voted in 16 districts in the primaries, won in 10 provinces this time.
However, it should come as no surprise that Patricia Bullrich, the JxC candidate, only managed to win in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (CABA), which is a poor performance for the opposition coalition.
In terms of representation in Congress, Unidad por el Progreso (UxP) secures 42% of the seats in the House of Deputies, while JxC gets 36% and Milei 14%. In the Senate, UxP stands at 47%, JxC at 33%, and Milei at 11%. A potential Massa administration would have its quorum and majorities. It would be in an excellent position to advance any legislative agenda, including the customary corruption acts of CFK, considering the diversity of JxC and the uncertainties within Milei’s bloc.
As for the economy, it’s evident that the immediate reaction to the election has been a significant downward correction in dollar futures and a rapid 12% drop in bond values, increasing the country’s risk.
The rampant demand for coverage, primarily driven by the expectation of Milei’s strong performance in the first round, has led the Central Bank to have a short position in dollar futures of around $7.4 billion.
Parallel exchange rates are likely to remain in the short term because there are now very few chances of dollarization as the primary economic policy. The volatility of the Argentine peso will persist due to the uncertainty associated with the electoral cycle, candidate statements, and polls.
In the sovereign dollar bond market, there have already been downward corrections, as the scenario of a JxC victory, considered more favorable for investors, is no longer an option.
Furthermore, the demand for coverage from companies that don’t have access to the parallel exchange market will remain high. It’s also worth noting that Argentine sovereign debt was trading above Venezuelan bonds, which was a positive aspect but is no longer the case.
Regarding the exchange rate policy, the Central Bank will keep the official exchange rate at 350 pesos per dollar in the weeks leading up to the runoff. This would result in a real exchange rate identical to what Cristina Fernández de Kirchner left Mauricio Macri in 2015.
The uncertainty about Massa’s economic plan – if he has one to offer, given the labor unions hanging in the balance, mayors wanting their share, La Cámpora demanding high positions, and CFK exerting pressure on the judiciary and impacting the economy – will have no capacity or opportunity to gain the market’s trust, given the macroeconomic challenges. This will be a topic to watch in the coming weeks.
In summary, we are at a crucial moment with an imminent runoff that will once again determine the country’s political and economic direction toward populism without resources.
Remember: populism without anything to distribute is a painful manifestation of voluntarism. But voluntarism only makes sense when there’s something where willpower can be applied with some results. And this is not the case.
Uncertainties have grown, but the economy and the markets are paying attention to any signals from the candidates, and post-election events have already given their verdict in the first round. In the market opening, local companies trading on Wall Street have dropped up to 9% in their initial reactions to the general election results.